Independent research on credit, risk, business finance and policy
This paper studies default outcomes and fraud classification in UK COVID-19 government-guaranteed lending using loan-level data on 1,107,934 limited-company facilities under the Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) and the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS). Combining logit models, Cox proportional
Read moreThe UK equity finance market has grown significantly, with £145.3bn invested across 25,002 companies from 2011 to 2025. However, regional disparities persist, with London dominating 47% of deals and 57% of investment value, while regions like the Midlands and Northern
Read morePrivate debt has emerged as an increasingly important source of corporate financing, yet we know surprisingly little about which firms actually receive it. This study provides the first large-scale analysis of firm-level determinants of private debt financing, drawing on a
Read moreThis report analyses over 59,000 UK grants from Innovate UK awarded between 2005 and 2023, focusing on the impact of funding on over 14,000 companies.The findings show that companies with Innovate UK funding, when compared to those without such funding,
Read moreOur Economics Letters paper https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111941 on equity funded firms is now available online. This paper with and looks at the use of guaranteed loans by potential high growth firms during the Covid period. Equity financing serves as a crucial mechanism for
Read moreOur recently published study with Dr Paul Lavery in the Journal of Corporate Finance https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102641 investigates the performance of private equity (PE)-backed companies during the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing their greater resilience compared to closely matched industry counterparts. However, the superior performance was
Read moreOur recent paper on entrepreneurial finance is published in Economics Letters. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that investor involvement through oversight and imparting expertise augments the likelihood of favourable outcomes. This is particularly evident in high technology sectors. We observe
Read moreResearch Paper The Productivity Puzzle. What’s Driving UK Under-Investment? Our recently published paper (with Marc Cowling) in the British Journal of Management analyses firm financing and investment decisions. There is a significant knowledge gap regarding small owner-managed firms that rely primarily on
Read moreDr Paul Lavery (Glasgow University), Prof Nick Wilson: We study the performance of PE-backed companies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings suggest that PE-backed firms’ sales, employment, and earnings were more resilient compared to closely matched industry peers during the
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